It is hard to say how long the current financial crisis in Southeast Asia will last and what measures will be taken to correct it. It is also hard to predict the level at which Southeast Asian currencies will stabilize and the long term economic and income growth these economies will experience. However, it is clear that certain measures taken in the short run will have serious long term consequences, the most important of them being the cut-backs in public sector investments for agricultural research and development, which could substantially affect the capacity of the Southeast Asian economies to feed their growing populations. Without sustained agricultural R&D investments, the food insecurity consequences of the crisis will be long lived. For the maize sector, the bottom line is that the demand for feed and food maize will continue to be strong well into the 21st Century. With the anticipated cut-back in imports, the pressure for increasing domestic production and productivity will be very high. National governments need to take a hard look at long term options, both technological and policy, that are necessary for enhancing domestic supplies. High levels of investments from the public and the private sector are needed to make the necessary quantum leap in supply. The paper presents a best guess scenario of the consequences of the crisis for the agriculture sector in general and the maize sector in particular. It is important to understand that the situation is very fluid and dramatic changes can occur in the short to medium term depending on changes in macro economic policies and international support provided to the concerned economies. There is a need for continued monitoring of the situation and empirical verification of the propositions made in this paper.

Socioeconomics Program

English

0208|AGRIS 0201|AL-Maize Program|R01PROCE|3

Juan Carlos Mendieta

CIMMYT Staff Publications Collection