5 tables; 1 fig. 11 ref. Summary (En)

The observed yield of a crop is the expression of its genetic yield potential in a given environment. Cereal production data indicate that realized yields on the farm are generally inferior to those obtained under controlled field conditions in rainfed areas. Seasonal rainfall is the most important factor affecting yields in the rainfed areas of North Africa and the Middle East. Up to 82 of the variation in grain yield was found to be determined by seasonal rainfall in areas receiving 133-454 mm with 11-19 kg/ha being produced for each additional millimeter. Other important factors include rainfall distribution, soil characteristics, temperature, evaporative demand, and biological stress. Yields in rainfall areas of North Africa and the Middle East can be increased by an appropriate crop rotation, adequate fertilization, and early planting. A 6-week delay in planting time resulted in yield reductions of 42 in barley and 22-32 in wheat. Breeding cereal cultivars adapted to rainfed areas is a prerequisite to raising yield potential in those areas. At ICARDA, multilocation screening of early generations and yield testing of advanced material in targeted dry environments has provided improved germplasm combining high potential and consistent performance both on research sites and on farmers' fields. Examples are the lines Rihane (barley), Korifla (durum wheat), and Flk's'-Hork (bread wheat). Farmers in the dry areas hesitate to make any substantial investments because of the high risk of total crop failure. Favorable credit, pricing, and insurance policies have to be developed for encouraging the farmers to adopt the improved technology

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