000			03258nab|a22003497a|4500
001			69060
003			MX-TxCIM
005			20250804114928.0
008			20258s2025|||||ne ||p|op||||00||0|eng|dd
022			_a2666-1543 (Online)
024	8		_ahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2025.102143
040			_aMX-TxCIM
041			_aeng
100	1		_aGardi, M.W. _gSustainable Agrifood Systems _8001713673 _930174
245	1	0	_aModeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia
260			_aNetherlands : _bElsevier B.V., _c2025.
500			_aPeer review
500			_aOpen Access
520			_aIn Ethiopia, sorghum is a vital food security crop, predominantly cultivated in semi-arid, rain-fed agricultural landscapes. However, the increasing effects of climate change now present a serious threat to its sustainable production. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on three popular sorghum varieties (ESH-1, ESH-2, and Melkam) in three semi-arid areas of Ethiopia using a crop-climate modeling approach. Calibration and validation of the CERES-Sorghum model demonstrated strong agreement between simulated and observed values, confirming its reliability for application. Climate projections from three GCM models show temperature increases up to 2.1 °C by the 2050s and 4 °C by the 2080s. Rainfall changes varied by location, with Mieso projected for a 21.8 % increase and Melkassa showing minimal change but high variability. Our findings reveal highly differential and location-specific yield responses across varieties under projected climate. Although projections show Kobo yields remaining stable or increasing slightly under climate change, sensitivity analysis reveals potential yield declines of up to 44 % with a 20 % rainfall reduction. In contrast, projections for Melkassa showed consistent yield declines across all varieties, exhibiting strong sensitivity to temperature changes, where a 1.5 ∘C increase potentially reduces yields by up to 40 %. In comparison, Mieso displayed mixed responses, with the ESH-2 variety performing notably better under future scenarios. These findings suggest that current agronomic practices may be insufficient to sustain yields under climate scenarios, threatening future food security. Thus, developing and implementing climate-resilient strategies, including cultivating drought-tolerant sorghum cultivars, optimizing irrigation, and enhancing soil health, is crucial to ensure effective adaptation and regional food security.
546			_aText in English
597			_bExcellence in Agronomy _dBill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) _fSustainable Farming _uhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175962
650		7	_aClimate change _2AGROVOC _91045
650		7	_aSorghum _2AGROVOC _92002
650		7	_aSemi-arid zones _2AGROVOC _934102
651		7	_aEthiopia _2AGROVOC _92025
700	1		_aZewdu, E. _939683
700	0		_aSida, T.S. _8001711262 _gSustainable Agrifood Systems _95724
773	0		_tJournal of Agriculture and Food Research _gv. 22, art. 102143 _dNetherlands : Elsevier B.V., 2025. _x2666-1543
856			_yOpen Access through DSpace _uhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/35813
942			_cJA _n0 _2ddc
999			_c69060 _d69052