000			04100nab|a22004937a|4500
001			65852
003			MX-TxCIM
005			20240919020954.0
008			20221s2022||||mx |||p|op||||00||0|eng|d
022			_a1354-1013
022			_a1365-2486 (Online)
024	8		_ahttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16552
040			_aMX-TxCIM
041			_aeng
100	1		_aFradgley, N. S. _8001713762 _gGlobal Wheat Program _917394
245	1	0	_aPrediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding
260			_bWiley, _c2023. _aUnited Kingdom :
500			_aPeer review
500			_aOpen Access
520			_aWheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050–2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype–environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.
546			_aText in English
591			_aCosta-Neto, G. : No CIMMYT Affiliation
650		7	_aAdaptation _2AGROVOC _96026
650		7	_aClimate change _2AGROVOC _91045
650		7	_aGrain _2AGROVOC _91138
650		7	_aQuality _2AGROVOC _91231
650		7	_aWheat _2AGROVOC _91310
650		7	_aBreeding _2AGROVOC _91029
651		7	_2AGROVOC _98073 _aUnited Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
700	1		_aBacon, J. _929613
700	1		_aBentley, A.R. _8001712492 _gFormerly Global Wheat Program _99599
700	1		_aCosta-Neto, G. _8001712813 _915939 _gGenetic Resources Program
700	1		_aCottrell, A. _929614
700	1		_aCrossa, J. _gGenetic Resources Program _8CCJL01 _959
700	1		_aCuevas, J. _94437
700	1		_aKerton, M. _927162
700	1		_aPope, E. _929615
700	1		_aSwarbreck, S.M. _925936
700	1		_aGardner, K.A. _8001712617 _gGenetic Resources Program _917393
773	0		_tGlobal Change Biology _dUnited Kingdom : Wiley, 2023. _x1354-1013 _gv. 29, no. 5, p. 1296-1313
856	4		_yOpen Access through DSpace _uhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/22384
942			_cJA _n0 _2ddc
999			_c65852 _d65844