000			03596nab a22004817a 4500
999			_c63914 _d63906
001			63914
003			MX-TxCIM
005			20211006073921.0
008			190523s2020 ne |||p|op||| 00| 0 eng d
022			_a0959-3780
024	8		_ahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102120
040			_aMX-TxCIM
041			_aeng
100	1		_920969 _aZeist, W.J. van
245	1	0	_aAre scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
260			_aAmsterdam (Netherlands) : _bElsevier, _c2020.
500			_aPeer review
520			_aHistorical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.
546			_aText in English
650		7	_2AGROVOC _99018 _aLand Use
650		7	_aCrop yield _gAGROVOC _2 _91066
650		7	_2AGROVOC _92701 _aForecasting
650		7	_2AGROVOC _91313 _aYields
700	1		_93674 _aStehfest, E.
700	1		_920970 _aDoelman, J.C.
700	1		_914213 _aValin, H.
700	1		_920971 _aCalvin, K.V.
700	0		_920972 _aShinichiro Fujimori
700	0		_920973 _aTomoko Hasegawa
700	1		_93659 _aHavlík, P.
700	1		_920974 _aHumpenöder, F.
700	1		_920975 _aKyle, P.
700	1		_92882 _aLotze-Campen, H.
700	1		_93950 _aMason-D’Croz, D.
700	1		_914738 _aMeijl, H. van
700	1		_914210 _aPopp, A.
700	1		_920976 _aSulser, T.B.
700	1		_920977 _aTabeau, A.
700	1		_920978 _aVerhagen, W.
700	1		_93949 _aWiebe, K.
773	0		_dAmsterdam (Netherlands) : Elsevier, 2020. _gv. 64, art. 102120 _tGlobal Environmental Change _x0959-3780
942			_2ddc _cJA _n0