000			02453nab a22003377a 4500
999			_c62513 _d62505
001			62513
003			MX-TxCIM
005			20211006073105.0
008			200212s2020 xxk|||p|op||| 00| 0 eng d
022			_a1758-678X
022			_a1758-6798 (Online)
024	8		_ahttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0600-z
040			_aMX-TxCIM
041			_aeng
100	1		_915603 _aGaupp, N.
245	1	0	_aChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure
260			_aLondon (United Kingdom) : _bNature Publishing Group, _c2020.
500			_aPeer review
520			_aThe risk of extreme climatic conditions leading to unusually low global agricultural production is exacerbated if more than one global ‘breadbasket’ is exposed at the same time. Such shocks can pose a risk to the global food system, amplifying threats to food security, and could potentially trigger other systemic risks1,2. While the possibility of climatic extremes hitting more than one breadbasket has been postulated3,4, little is known about the actual risk. Here we combine region-specific data on agricultural production with spatial statistics of climatic extremes to quantify the changing risk of low production for the major food-producing regions (breadbaskets) over time. We show an increasing risk of simultaneous failure of wheat, maize and soybean crops across the breadbaskets analysed. For rice, risks of simultaneous adverse climate conditions have decreased in the recent past, mostly owing to solar radiation changes favouring rice growth. Depending on the correlation structure between the breadbaskets, spatial dependence between climatic extremes globally can mitigate or aggravate the risks for the global food production. Our analysis can provide the basis for more efficient allocation of resources to contingency plans and/or strategic crop reserves that would enhance the resilience of the global food system.
546			_aText in English
650		7	_2AGROVOC _91045 _aClimate change
650		7	_2AGROVOC _95543 _aAgricultural production
650		7	_2AGROVOC _91116 _aFood production
650		7	_aFood security _gAGROVOC _2 _91118
650		7	_2AGROVOC _99707 _aRisk
700	1		_915604 _aHall, J.
700	1		_915605 _aHochrainer-Stigler, S.
700	1		_915606 _aDadson, S.
773	0		_dLondon (United Kingdom) : Nature Publishing Group, 2020. _gv. 10, no. 1, p. 54–57 _tNature Climate Change _x1758-6798 _wu97377
942			_2ddc _cJA _n0