000			02806nab a22003737a 4500
999			_c60370 _d60362
001			60370
003			MX-TxCIM
005			20240711204300.0
008			190425s2019||||ne |||p|op||||00||0|eng|d
022			_a2211-9124
024	8		_ahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.002
040			_aMX-TxCIM
041			_aeng
100	1		_aAggarwal, P.K. _gBISA Regional Program Leader _8I1706967 _92418
245	1		_aImportance of considering technology growth in impact assessments of climate change on agriculture
260			_aAmsterdam (Netherlands) : _bElsevier, _c2019.
500			_aPeer review
500			_aOpen Access
520			_aMany assessments of climate change impacts on global crop yields project declines as early as the 2020s. Losses are projected to increase with time, up to 50% by the 2080s. We carry out a systematic global review and compare published projections of climate change impacts from 34 studies and ∼4500 data points for the 2020s for maize, rice and wheat at country level with observed and forecasted national crop yields for the same period based on available global crop statistics. We find that observed yield changes are considerably higher than projected yield changes arising from climate change because technological improvements appear to have a large yield-enhancing impact compared with the negative effects of climate change, at least in the short term. Most assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields show low-latitude, low and middle-income countries as highly vulnerable but these countries have shown the largest growth in observed yields over the same reference time period. These discrepancies are due to incomplete consideration of technological growth in climate impact assessments and large yield gaps in these countries, uncertainties associated with the methodologies used, and regional variations in adaptation options considered. Appropriate consideration of technological growth can add considerable value and relevance to global impact assessments, contributing to investment and development targeting at both large and small scales.
546			_aText in English
650		7	_2AGROVOC _91045 _aClimate change
650		7	_2AGROVOC _98668 _aImpact assessment
650		0	_aTechnology _gAGROVOC _91988
650		7	_aAgriculture _gAGROVOC _2 _91007
650		7	_aFood security _gAGROVOC _2 _91118
650		7	_aCrop yield _gAGROVOC _2 _91066
700	1		_96488 _aVyas, S.
700	1		_aThornton, P.K. _8001713978 _gBISA _92413
700	1		_93681 _aCampbell, B.M.
700	1		_aKropff, M. _8I1706694 _gFormerly DG's Office _92004
773	0		_tGlobal Food Security _gv. 23, p. 41-48 _dAmsterdam (Netherlands) : Elsevier, 2019 _x2211-9124
856	4		_yOpen Access through DSpace _uhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/20158
942			_cJA _n0 _2ddc