000 nab a22 7a 4500
999 _c59581
_d59573
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005 20191209204440.0
008 180601s2018||||cau|||p|op||||00||0|eng|d
024 8 _ahttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197555
040 _aMX-TxCIM
041 _aeng
100 1 _9810
_aMottaleb, K.A.
_gSocioeconomics Program
_8I1706152
245 1 0 _aThreat of wheat blast to South Asia’s food security :
_ban ex-ante analysis
_h[Electronic Resource]
260 _bPublic Library of Science,
_c2018.
_aSan Francisco, Calif., U.S. :
500 _aOpen Access
500 _aPeer review
520 _aNew biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia?its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5?10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89?1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132?264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia. © 2018 Mottaleb et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
546 _aText in English
591 _bCIMMYT Informa : 2015 (June 14, 2018)
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_97593
_aBiotic stress
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_91118
_aFood security
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_91310
_aWheat
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_96212
_aInfectious diseases
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_92007
_aRisk assessment
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_96794
_aCereal crops
650 7 _2AGROVOC
_98809
_aFungicides
651 7 _91956
_aSouth Asia
_gAGROVOC
700 1 _aSingh, P.K.
_8INT2868
_9868
_gGlobal Wheat Program
700 1 _9882
_aSonder, K.
_gSocioeconomics Program
_8INT3032
700 1 _94555
_aKruseman, G.
_gSocioeconomics Program
_8I1706841
700 1 _aTiwari, T.P.
_8INT3018
_9881
_gSustainable Intensification Program
700 1 _91872
_aBarma, N.C.D
700 1 _aMalaker, P.K.
_92695
700 1 _9824
_aBraun, H.J.
_gGlobal Wheat Program
_8INT0599
700 1 _9848
_aErenstein, O.
_gSocioeconomics Program
_8INT2677
773 0 _tPLoS One
_gv. 13, no. 5, art. e0197555
_wu94957
_x1932-6203
856 4 _yOpen Access through Dspace
_uhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/19515
942 _cJA
_n0
_2ddc