000			02100nab a22003017a 4500
001			G98845
003			MX-TxCIM
005			20190715215654.0
008			121211b |||p||p||||||| |z||| |
022	0		_a1758-678X
024	8		_ahttps://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153
040			_aMX-TxCIM
041	0		_aEn
100	1		_91773 _aChallinor, A.J.
245	0	0	_aA meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
260			_c2014
520			_aFeeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society1, 2. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses3 have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7?15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.
546			_aEnglish
593			_aCarelia Juarez
595			_aRPC
700	1		_aChhetri, N., _ecoaut.
700	1		_aHowden, S.M., _ecoaut.
700	1		_aLobell, D.B., _ecoaut.
700	1		_aSmith, D.R., _ecoaut.
700	1		_aWatson, J., _ecoaut.
773	0		_tNature Climate Change _gv. 4, p. 287-291
942			_cJA
999			_c30510 _d30510