TY  - PRO
AU  - Ismailov,I.
AU  - Bedoshvili,D.
ED  - Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maiz y Trigo (CIMMYT)
ED  - 
TI  - Loss accounting in forecasting yield of cereal crops
U1  - 633.1147 
PY  - 2004///
CY  - Tbilisi (Georgia)
PB  - CIMMYT
KW  - Biology
KW  - AGROVOC
KW  - Crop yield
KW  - Seed production
KW  - Technology
KW  - Varieties
KW  - Wheat
KW  - Hybrids
KW  - CIMMYT
N1  - Abstract only
N2  - Agricultural production volume should correspond to the possibility of its realization, i.e. be deterrnined by demand. .{). ¿ ¿p (1), where W and S p are the production volume and demand in the planned year. The yield loss issue is a significant problem of the agrarian sector. Yield losses encompass all the technological cycle of crop production and are associated with essential damages to the producer. Therefore, in forecasting the production volume, losses should be accounted at every stage of pro- duction. The following requirements should be met in forecasting the production output: F.U=¿T.N.lj (2), Where f is the grain crop area, ha; u is yield, t/ha; t is the number of grain consumers, standard unit (su); n is the average annual rate of consumption, t/su; i is the indicator of an item of losses in the cycle "production-sale":j = 1.2. n. Grain losses may be grouped by their causes as follows: production technology violations or losses of the biological yield; imperfection of the machinery used in grain crop management; uncoordinated activities of producers and processing industries; natural losses. The planted area, given the losses, may be expressed by the following equation: Fyo =fr-1T.N.IEiu,iy,imp,ino,ic,ixp,i3,iucj (3) Where iu is the ratio accounting for biological yield losses; i y is the ratio accounting for losses at harvesting; imp is the ratio of losses at loading/ unloading, transportation and packing; i no is the ratio of the pre-processing damage; ic -the ratio of losses at drying; ixp- the ratio of product losses at storage; 13 -the ratio of a share of the given pro- duct's reserve ( i 3 > 1 ); i uc -the ratio of pro- duct losses upon utilization, i.e. Upon storage, sale, etc. As a result of the logical and theoretical analysis, it may be concluded that in forecasting cereal yields an account of product losses in all the above categories should also be made in addition to the direct consumption. Thus, the forecasted area of an agricultural crop with regard to the above- said shall be: r Fn =Fy()+¿fj (4) Where S f is the area accounting for all category yield losses. To reduce grain yield losses, the following scope of measures should be considered: .The measures directed at elimination production technology violations or biological yield losses through careful compliance with all crop management practices and dates; .Increasing production of grain crops by utilizing high-yielding varieties adapted to the environment; .Improving machinery used in grain growing; .Ensuring coordination between the producers and processing industries by elaborating and organizing effective pattems of utilizing farm machinery and technical maintenance services; .Reducing natural losses through elaboration and introduction of novel progressive storage technologies
ER  -