TY  - JA
AU  - Pequeno,D.N.L.
AU  - Berton Ferreira,T.
AU  - Fernandes,J.M.C.
AU  - Pawan Kumar Singh
AU  - Pavan,W.O.
AU  - Sonder,K.
AU  - Robertson,R.
AU  - Krupnik,T.J.
AU  - Erenstein,O.
AU  - Asseng,S.
TI  - Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change
SN  - 1758-678X
PY  - 2024///
CY  - London (United Kingdom)
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
KW  - Wheat
KW  - AGROVOC
KW  - Plant diseases
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Production
N1  - Peer review; Open Access
N2  - Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/10883/23007
T2  - Nature Climate Change
ER  -