Early warning and mitigation planning: Epidemiological models add value to surveillance
Material type:
TextPublication details: 2013Description: p. 2Summary: Considerable progress has been made in the development and implementation of a global surveillance and monitoring system for wheat rusts. Uniquely for a major crop-disease problem of global importance a functional, trans-boundary, surveillance system is now operational. In the space of five years, a standardized surveillance network covering 40 countries has been created, a comprehensive data management platform developed and important pathogen changes, e.g. the Ug99 race group, have been tracked. The rust surveillance activities have permitted the identification of current disease hotspots for stem rust, leaf rust and stripe rust across the key wheat growing regions of Africa and Asia. Through interlinked data resources (e.g. CIMMYT Wheat Atlas, GRIS, BGRI screening nursery database) increasing amounts of information are being obtained relating pathogen data to host distributions and responses. The existing surveillance platform provides a good foundation, but important information gaps still remain if effective planning and control strategies for wheat rusts are to be achieved. Partnerships with advanced UK research institutes, Cambridge University and Rothamsted Research, are adding increasing value to the existing surveillance platform. Epidemiological modelling provides a powerful means of integrating current knowledge and comparing the effectiveness of different potential strategies before they are implemented in practice, e.g. optimal deployment strategies for rust resistant cultivars or the most effective chemical control strategies. Building upon accumulated current knowledge an epidemiological model is being developed for stem rust. The model will permit insights into likely epidemic development over space and time in different environments and cropping systems. Based on this epidemic model, so called hazard maps can be developed. Such hazard maps quantify the size of the epidemic for each point on a map resulting from an introduction of one or more Pgt races at that place. The hazard maps can be combined with data on likely points of introduction from natural air-borne movements or accidental human-borne transmission to produce risk maps. Hazard and risk maps together with epidemiological models will form the basis for the early detection, efficient monitoring systems as well as a basis for optimal mitigation planning. Current status of the rust surveillance and the epidemiological modelling activities will be described.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference proceedings | CIMMYT Knowledge Center: John Woolston Library | CIMMYT Staff Publications Collection | CIS-7270 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available |
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Abstract only
Considerable progress has been made in the development and implementation of a global surveillance and monitoring system for wheat rusts. Uniquely for a major crop-disease problem of global importance a functional, trans-boundary, surveillance system is now operational. In the space of five years, a standardized surveillance network covering 40 countries has been created, a comprehensive data management platform developed and important pathogen changes, e.g. the Ug99 race group, have been tracked. The rust surveillance activities have permitted the identification of current disease hotspots for stem rust, leaf rust and stripe rust across the key wheat growing regions of Africa and Asia. Through interlinked data resources (e.g. CIMMYT Wheat Atlas, GRIS, BGRI screening nursery database) increasing amounts of information are being obtained relating pathogen data to host distributions and responses. The existing surveillance platform provides a good foundation, but important information gaps still remain if effective planning and control strategies for wheat rusts are to be achieved. Partnerships with advanced UK research institutes, Cambridge University and Rothamsted Research, are adding increasing value to the existing surveillance platform. Epidemiological modelling provides a powerful means of integrating current knowledge and comparing the effectiveness of different potential strategies before they are implemented in practice, e.g. optimal deployment strategies for rust resistant cultivars or the most effective chemical control strategies. Building upon accumulated current knowledge an epidemiological model is being developed for stem rust. The model will permit insights into likely epidemic development over space and time in different environments and cropping systems. Based on this epidemic model, so called hazard maps can be developed. Such hazard maps quantify the size of the epidemic for each point on a map resulting from an introduction of one or more Pgt races at that place. The hazard maps can be combined with data on likely points of introduction from natural air-borne movements or accidental human-borne transmission to produce risk maps. Hazard and risk maps together with epidemiological models will form the basis for the early detection, efficient monitoring systems as well as a basis for optimal mitigation planning. Current status of the rust surveillance and the epidemiological modelling activities will be described.
Socioeconomics Program
English
Lucia Segura
INT2550
CIMMYT Staff Publications Collection