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Impact of modern technology adoption on output growth and sustainability of major cereal production in Bangladesh

By: Fakhrul Islam, S.M | Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maiz y Trigo (CIMMYT), Mexico DF (Mexico) | International Conference on Impacts of Agricultural Research and Development San José (Costa Rica) 4-7 Feb 2002.
Contributor(s): Watson, D.J [ed.].
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookAnalytics: Show analyticsPublisher: Mexico, DF (Mexico) CIMMYT : 2003Description: p. 67.ISBN: 970-648-104-4.Subject(s): Bangladesh | Cereals | Developing Countries | Food crops | Production economics | Production economics | Rice | Wheat | CIMMYTDDC classification: 338.91 Summary: Bangladesh comprises a small area-147,570 km2 - with a large population (122 million). Rice and wheat are the staple foods of the Bangladeshi people. By the year 2020, 37 million tons of food grain will be required for a projected population of 172 million. Can Bangladesh sustain the growth momentum, driven by the development and application of new technologies, which is required to ensure future food security? This study examined the impact of modern technology adoption on output growth and the sustainability of major cereal production in Bangladesh. The study area consisted of 17 greater districts in Bangladesh, characterized by agro-ecology. A time series database on major cereal production was used. The growth rate of major cereal production was measured using a compound growth rate model, while the sustainability of modern food grain production technology was measured by estimating total factor productivity (TFP), using the Tomqvist Theil (Tf) index. A moment based production function was used to estimate factors affecting the sustainability of modem food grain production technology. The model was estimated by the generalized method of moment procedure. Good progress in the adoption of modem variety (MV) rice was achieved during 1970s and 1980s because of the release of high-yielding varieties and govemment subsidies on fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation. Over the last 25 years, since independence, the growth rates in rice production, acreage and yield were 2.53%, 0.33% and 1.20% per annum, respectively. In general, this was achieved via high growth rates in rice yield. However, over the same time period (25 years), the growth rate of production, area, and yield of MV rice were 7.99%,8.72% and -0.73% per annum, respectively. During the 1980s and 1990s the highest growth in acreage (9.64%) and production (9.03%) was achieved for MV wet season rice (Aman) followed by MV winter season (Boro) rice whose growth in area and production were 8.84% and 8.83% per annum, respectively. Growth in acreage and production of MV summer rice (Aus) were 7.93% and 5.46% per annum, respectively. In general, a positive growth rate in MV rice production was achieved due to the area expansion of MV rice. Yield for MV rice all three seasons declined. This could be attributed to the degradation of soil fertility due to intensive cultivation, inappropriate fertilizer application, deficiency of micronutrients in soils, and a general deterioration in varietal traits. Since independence, the area and production of all cereal crops in Bangladesh has increased. However, with the exception of wheat, yields have decreased. The estirnates of TFP indices of MV Aus, Aman, Boro and wheat indicated that modern food grain production technology became unsustainable after the mid-1980s. It revealed that MV Aus production technology was sustainable up to 1983, MV Aman technology was sustainable until 1985, and MV Boro was sustainable until1989. MV wheat production technology was sustainable until 1984, indicated by a declining trend in TFP indices. The study also identified and quantified the impact of technological (fertilizer, pesticides, etc.) and environmental factors (rainfall, humidity, etc.) on the sustainability of modern rice and wheat production in Bangladesh, using production distribution moments.Collection: CIMMYT Publications Collection
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Conference proceedings CIMMYT Knowledge Center: John Woolston Library

Lic. Jose Juan Caballero Flores

 

CIMMYT Publications Collection 338.91 WAT (Browse shelf) 1 Available 1L632147
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Bangladesh comprises a small area-147,570 km2 - with a large population (122 million). Rice and wheat are the staple foods of the Bangladeshi people. By the year 2020, 37 million tons of food grain will be required for a projected population of 172 million. Can Bangladesh sustain the growth momentum, driven by the development and application of new technologies, which is required to ensure future food security? This study examined the impact of modern technology adoption on output growth and the sustainability of major cereal production in Bangladesh. The study area consisted of 17 greater districts in Bangladesh, characterized by agro-ecology. A time series database on major cereal production was used. The growth rate of major cereal production was measured using a compound growth rate model, while the sustainability of modern food grain production technology was measured by estimating total factor productivity (TFP), using the Tomqvist Theil (Tf) index. A moment based production function was used to estimate factors affecting the sustainability of modem food grain production technology. The model was estimated by the generalized method of moment procedure. Good progress in the adoption of modem variety (MV) rice was achieved during 1970s and 1980s because of the release of high-yielding varieties and govemment subsidies on fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation. Over the last 25 years, since independence, the growth rates in rice production, acreage and yield were 2.53%, 0.33% and 1.20% per annum, respectively. In general, this was achieved via high growth rates in rice yield. However, over the same time period (25 years), the growth rate of production, area, and yield of MV rice were 7.99%,8.72% and -0.73% per annum, respectively. During the 1980s and 1990s the highest growth in acreage (9.64%) and production (9.03%) was achieved for MV wet season rice (Aman) followed by MV winter season (Boro) rice whose growth in area and production were 8.84% and 8.83% per annum, respectively. Growth in acreage and production of MV summer rice (Aus) were 7.93% and 5.46% per annum, respectively. In general, a positive growth rate in MV rice production was achieved due to the area expansion of MV rice. Yield for MV rice all three seasons declined. This could be attributed to the degradation of soil fertility due to intensive cultivation, inappropriate fertilizer application, deficiency of micronutrients in soils, and a general deterioration in varietal traits. Since independence, the area and production of all cereal crops in Bangladesh has increased. However, with the exception of wheat, yields have decreased. The estirnates of TFP indices of MV Aus, Aman, Boro and wheat indicated that modern food grain production technology became unsustainable after the mid-1980s. It revealed that MV Aus production technology was sustainable up to 1983, MV Aman technology was sustainable until 1985, and MV Boro was sustainable until1989. MV wheat production technology was sustainable until 1984, indicated by a declining trend in TFP indices. The study also identified and quantified the impact of technological (fertilizer, pesticides, etc.) and environmental factors (rainfall, humidity, etc.) on the sustainability of modern rice and wheat production in Bangladesh, using production distribution moments.

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0310|AGRIS 0301|AL-Economics Program|R01PROCE

Juan Carlos Mendieta

CIMMYT Publications Collection

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