Open Access

Over the past decades, climate change has brought about numerous detrimental consequences for agricultural production in many countries, posing a substantial challenge to the economic wellbeing of farmers while affecting national and international economies (Rosenzweig, et al., 2013; Koirala et al., 2022; IPCC, 2023). Meteorological data specifically indicates that extreme weather events are occurring with unprecedented frequencies, intensities, and durations. This includes events associated with variations in the El Niño – Southern Oscillation of ocean currents, such as unusually dry weather in June through August in Nepal and other parts of South Asia (IPCC, 2023; Rojas et al., 2019; Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, 2018). For example, during the El Niño year of 1992, a particularly severe drought occurred in Nepal, contributing in part to a 17.7 percent fall in rice production relative to the prior trend (Bhuvaneswari et al., 2013; Sharma, et al., 2021). Current indications are that another El Niño – related drought may already be underway in 2023 and into 2024 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2023). With the extreme weather events, global economies have experienced a number of recent shocks – for example those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts in countries such as the Ukraine and Russia that are important exporters of agricultural inputs and goods. As such, this research note explores the implications of a range of agricultural productivity shocks including but not limited to those resulting from a possible El Niño-related drought in 2023 and extending into early 2024 (coinciding with the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons).

Text in English