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The macroeconomic situation of Nepal remains largely stable. In the absence of new shocks, price fluctuations are likely to remain relatively small. Moderate increases in rice prices have a slight negative effect on consumer welfare but may benefit farmers: Although rice farmers who produce a surplus for sale gain from higher prices, urban households and net buyers in rural areas are more numerous and lose from higher prices. Wheat prices are increasing: In November 2022, food prices were generally stable (rice, pulses, and edible oils) or declining (potatoes and tomatoes). The exception was wheat flour, whose price continued its upward trend since mid-2022 into January. This will adversely affect consumers of wheat products, but the availability and stable price of rice will mute the impact on consumers. The urban poor feel the consequences of price changes most acutely: The most adverse effect of higher rice prices is on the urban poor, who spend a relatively large share of their budget on rice and other staples.

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