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The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055

By: Jones, P.G.
Contributor(s): Thornton, P.K.
Material type: materialTypeLabelArticlePublisher: Amsterdam (Netherlands) : Elsevier, 2003ISSN: 0959-3780.Subject(s): Climate change | Maize | Poverty | Crop modelling | Food security | Africa | Latin AmericaOnline resources: Access only for CIMMYT staff In: Global Environmental Change v. 13, n. 1, p. 51-59Summary: The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.
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Article CIMMYT Knowledge Center: John Woolston Library

Lic. Jose Juan Caballero Flores

 

CIMMYT Staff Publications Collection CIS-3603 (Browse shelf) 1 Available 632029
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The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

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