Knowledge Center Catalog

Why is there so much variability in crop multi-model studies? (Record no. 69070)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 04357nab|a22007337a|4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 69070
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field MX-TxCIM
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20250731174923.0
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 20257s2025||||mx |||p|op||||00||0|eng|d
022 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD SERIAL NUMBER
International Standard Serial Number 0168-1923
022 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD SERIAL NUMBER
International Standard Serial Number 1873-2240 (Online)
024 8# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER
Standard number or code https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110697
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Original cataloging agency MX-TxCIM
041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE
Language code of text/sound track or separate title eng
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Wallach, D.
9 (RLIN) 1769
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Why is there so much variability in crop multi-model studies?
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Place of publication, distribution, etc. Amsterdam (Netherlands) :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc. Elsevier B.V.,
Date of publication, distribution, etc. 2025.
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note Peer review
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note Open Access
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. It has become common to compare crop model results in multi-model simulation experiments. In general, one observes a large variability in such studies, which reduces the confidence one can have in such models. It is important to understand the causes of this variability as a first step toward reducing it. For a given data set, the variability in a multi-model study can arise from uncertainty in model structure or in parameter values for a given structure. Previous studies have made assumptions about the origin of parameter uncertainty, and then quantified its contribution, generally finding that parameter uncertainty is less important than structure uncertainty. However, those studies do not take account of the full parameter variability in multi-model studies. Here we propose estimating parameter uncertainty based on open-call multi-model ensembles where the same structure is used by more than one modeling group. The variability in such a case is due to the full variability of parameters among modeling groups. Then structure and parameter contributions can be estimated using random effects analysis of variance. Based on three multi-model studies for simulating wheat phenology, it is found that the contribution of parameter uncertainty to total uncertainty is, on average, more than twice as large as the uncertainty from structure. A second estimate, based on a comparison of two different calibration approaches for multiple models leads to a very similar result. We conclude that improvement of crop models requires as much attention to parameters as to model structure.
546 ## - LANGUAGE NOTE
Language note Text in English
591 ## - CATALOGING NOTES
Affiliation Rettie, F.M. : No CIMMYT Affiliation
597 ## - CGIAR Initiative
Donor or Funder National Key Research and Development Program
-- United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
-- Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
-- Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
-- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
-- Research Council of Finland
-- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
-- Ministero dell'Agricoltura, della Sovranità alimentare e delle Foreste (MASAF)
-- Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
-- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIRO)
650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Crop modelling
Source of heading or term AGROVOC
9 (RLIN) 2623
650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Structures
Source of heading or term AGROVOC
9 (RLIN) 18463
650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Parameters
Source of heading or term AGROVOC
9 (RLIN) 39696
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Palosuo, T.
9 (RLIN) 2657
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Mielenz, H.
9 (RLIN) 39697
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Buis, S.
9 (RLIN) 2634
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Thorburn, P.J.
9 (RLIN) 1786
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Asseng, S.
9 (RLIN) 1568
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Dumont, B.
9 (RLIN) 1582
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Ferrise, R.
9 (RLIN) 1585
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Gayler, S.
9 (RLIN) 1775
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Ghahramani, A.
9 (RLIN) 29877
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Harrison, M.T.
9 (RLIN) 39698
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Hochman, Z.
9 (RLIN) 4037
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Hoogenboom, G.
9 (RLIN) 4150
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Mingxia Huang
9 (RLIN) 39699
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Qi Jing
9 (RLIN) 39700
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Justes, E.
9 (RLIN) 17277
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Kersebaum, K.C.
9 (RLIN) 1776
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Launay, M.
9 (RLIN) 39701
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Lewan, E.
9 (RLIN) 39702
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Ke Liu
9 (RLIN) 39703
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Qunying Luo
9 (RLIN) 1605
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Rettie, F.M.
Field link and sequence number 001714439
Miscellaneous information Sustainable Agrifood Systems
9 (RLIN) 26536
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Nendel, C.
9 (RLIN) 2654
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Padovan, G.
9 (RLIN) 18325
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Olesen, J.E.
9 (RLIN) 1780
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Pullens, J.W.M.
9 (RLIN) 29562
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Qian, B.
9 (RLIN) 18564
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Seserman, D.M.
9 (RLIN) 39704
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Shelia, V
9 (RLIN) 8595
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Souissi, A.
9 (RLIN) 17241
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Specka, X.
9 (RLIN) 39705
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Jing Wang
9 (RLIN) 1646
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Weber, T.K.D.
9 (RLIN) 26537
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Weihermüller, L.
9 (RLIN) 39706
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Seidel, S.J.
9 (RLIN) 39707
773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY
Title Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Related parts v. 372, art. 110697
Place, publisher, and date of publication Amsterdam (Netherlands) : Elsevier, 2025.
International Standard Serial Number 0168-1923
Record control number G444454
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Koha item type Article
Suppress in OPAC No
Source of classification or shelving scheme Dewey Decimal Classification
Holdings
Date last seen Total Checkouts Price effective from Koha item type Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Collection code Withdrawn status Home library Current library Date acquired
07/22/2025   07/22/2025 Article Not Lost Dewey Decimal Classification     Reprints Collection   CIMMYT Knowledge Center: John Woolston Library CIMMYT Knowledge Center: John Woolston Library 07/22/2025

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