MARC details
| 000 -LEADER |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
03596nab a22004817a 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER |
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| control field |
63914 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
|---|
| control field |
MX-TxCIM |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
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| control field |
20211006073921.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
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| fixed length control field |
190523s2020 ne |||p|op||| 00| 0 eng d |
| 022 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD SERIAL NUMBER |
|---|
| International Standard Serial Number |
0959-3780 |
| 024 8# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER |
|---|
| Standard number or code |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102120 |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE |
|---|
| Original cataloging agency |
MX-TxCIM |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE |
|---|
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title |
eng |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20969 |
| Personal name |
Zeist, W.J. van |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress? |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT) |
|---|
| Place of publication, distribution, etc. |
Amsterdam (Netherlands) : |
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc. |
Elsevier, |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. |
2020. |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE |
|---|
| General note |
Peer review |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches. |
| 546 ## - LANGUAGE NOTE |
|---|
| Language note |
Text in English |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Source of heading or term |
AGROVOC |
| 9 (RLIN) |
9018 |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Land Use |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Crop yield |
| Miscellaneous information |
AGROVOC |
| Source of heading or term |
|
| 9 (RLIN) |
1066 |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Source of heading or term |
AGROVOC |
| 9 (RLIN) |
2701 |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Forecasting |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Source of heading or term |
AGROVOC |
| 9 (RLIN) |
1313 |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Yields |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
3674 |
| Personal name |
Stehfest, E. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20970 |
| Personal name |
Doelman, J.C. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
14213 |
| Personal name |
Valin, H. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20971 |
| Personal name |
Calvin, K.V. |
| 700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20972 |
| Personal name |
Shinichiro Fujimori |
| 700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20973 |
| Personal name |
Tomoko Hasegawa |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
3659 |
| Personal name |
Havlík, P. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20974 |
| Personal name |
Humpenöder, F. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20975 |
| Personal name |
Kyle, P. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
2882 |
| Personal name |
Lotze-Campen, H. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
3950 |
| Personal name |
Mason-D’Croz, D. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
14738 |
| Personal name |
Meijl, H. van |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
14210 |
| Personal name |
Popp, A. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20976 |
| Personal name |
Sulser, T.B. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20977 |
| Personal name |
Tabeau, A. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
20978 |
| Personal name |
Verhagen, W. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
3949 |
| Personal name |
Wiebe, K. |
| 773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY |
|---|
| Place, publisher, and date of publication |
Amsterdam (Netherlands) : Elsevier, 2020. |
| Related parts |
v. 64, art. 102120 |
| Title |
Global Environmental Change |
| International Standard Serial Number |
0959-3780 |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Source of classification or shelving scheme |
Dewey Decimal Classification |
| Koha item type |
Article |
| Suppress in OPAC |
No |