The welfare effects of maize technologies in marginal and high-potential regions of Kenya
Karanja, D.D.
The welfare effects of maize technologies in marginal and high-potential regions of Kenya - Mexico, DF (Mexico) CIMMYT : 2003 - p. 78 - Printed
A long-standing debate within the CGIAR system concerns the effects on various populations (particularly the poor) of different allocations of research effort between marginal and favored production environments. Some argue that there has been systematic under-investment in marginal production environments, to the detriment of the large group of impoverished people within those areas. Others counter that historically: investment in marginal areas has been low precisely because the returns to those investments are low, and that diverting research resources away from favored production environments would, overall, do more harm than good. In Kenya, this debate is critically important for several reasons. First, agriculture is the dominant sector in the economy, accounting for 28-30% of GDP. Second, the country has one of the fastest growing populations in the world, which puts considerable pressure on arable land (20% of total land area) to produce sufficient food. The consequence of this has been reduced fallow periods, fewer crop rotation options, and loss of soil fertility and land productivity. Third, and partly due to the rapidly growing population, there has been notable out-migration from high-potential to low-potential agro-ecological zones, with an accompanying increase in the importance of agricultural production on less- favored lands. This transformation of the spatial distribution of production has serious implications for both agricultural research and the environment. Finally, Kenya's economy has been on the downturn for the past two decades, resulting in severe reduction in available resources for agriculture research. Past increases in maize production were fueled by the development of high yielding varieties suitable for a range of agro-ecological zones, as well as an increase in the area under maize cultivation. However, future productivity gains are likely to rely more on the former than the later. While maize productivity growth has declined since the mid-1970s, a wide gap separates experiment station yields from those achieved in farmers' fields. This indicates that significant productivity gains could be achieved through better targeting and promotion for adoption of improved technologies. This study uses a multi-market model of maize production to assess the potential impact of improved maize technology on incomes and welfare of both rural and urban households in Kenya. We analyze the likely impacts on various household types of the diffusion of improved maize varieties and crop management technologies that are currently "on the shelf." The direct effects of technical change are based on assessments made by experts in the Kenyan agricultural research system. The model computes the indirect effects that are transmitted through product and factor markets via endogenous changes in output prices and input prices. The model is disaggregated into six distinct agro- ecological production zones. This allows us to investigate alternative technology adoption scenarios (e.g., a "balanced diffusion" scenario) in which technical change occurs in all areas, versus scenarios in which diffusion is confined to either favored or marginal production environments. Our results indicate that on both efficiency and equity grounds, the most desirable outcomes include targeting of agricultural technologies toward more favored agro- ecological zones.
English
970-648-104-4
CGIAR
Economic sectors
Environmental factors
Food production
Kenya
Maize
Population growth
Production economics
Agricultural research
CIMMYT
338.91 / WAT
The welfare effects of maize technologies in marginal and high-potential regions of Kenya - Mexico, DF (Mexico) CIMMYT : 2003 - p. 78 - Printed
A long-standing debate within the CGIAR system concerns the effects on various populations (particularly the poor) of different allocations of research effort between marginal and favored production environments. Some argue that there has been systematic under-investment in marginal production environments, to the detriment of the large group of impoverished people within those areas. Others counter that historically: investment in marginal areas has been low precisely because the returns to those investments are low, and that diverting research resources away from favored production environments would, overall, do more harm than good. In Kenya, this debate is critically important for several reasons. First, agriculture is the dominant sector in the economy, accounting for 28-30% of GDP. Second, the country has one of the fastest growing populations in the world, which puts considerable pressure on arable land (20% of total land area) to produce sufficient food. The consequence of this has been reduced fallow periods, fewer crop rotation options, and loss of soil fertility and land productivity. Third, and partly due to the rapidly growing population, there has been notable out-migration from high-potential to low-potential agro-ecological zones, with an accompanying increase in the importance of agricultural production on less- favored lands. This transformation of the spatial distribution of production has serious implications for both agricultural research and the environment. Finally, Kenya's economy has been on the downturn for the past two decades, resulting in severe reduction in available resources for agriculture research. Past increases in maize production were fueled by the development of high yielding varieties suitable for a range of agro-ecological zones, as well as an increase in the area under maize cultivation. However, future productivity gains are likely to rely more on the former than the later. While maize productivity growth has declined since the mid-1970s, a wide gap separates experiment station yields from those achieved in farmers' fields. This indicates that significant productivity gains could be achieved through better targeting and promotion for adoption of improved technologies. This study uses a multi-market model of maize production to assess the potential impact of improved maize technology on incomes and welfare of both rural and urban households in Kenya. We analyze the likely impacts on various household types of the diffusion of improved maize varieties and crop management technologies that are currently "on the shelf." The direct effects of technical change are based on assessments made by experts in the Kenyan agricultural research system. The model computes the indirect effects that are transmitted through product and factor markets via endogenous changes in output prices and input prices. The model is disaggregated into six distinct agro- ecological production zones. This allows us to investigate alternative technology adoption scenarios (e.g., a "balanced diffusion" scenario) in which technical change occurs in all areas, versus scenarios in which diffusion is confined to either favored or marginal production environments. Our results indicate that on both efficiency and equity grounds, the most desirable outcomes include targeting of agricultural technologies toward more favored agro- ecological zones.
English
970-648-104-4
CGIAR
Economic sectors
Environmental factors
Food production
Kenya
Maize
Population growth
Production economics
Agricultural research
CIMMYT
338.91 / WAT