Grey Swans – Agricultural price spikes are not a thing of the past
Mitchell, I.
Grey Swans – Agricultural price spikes are not a thing of the past - USA : Wiley, 2015.
Peer review
Food price spikes can lead to significant increases in hunger and disruption but unlike ‘Black Swans’ they are not unforeseen or extremely unlikely events. Perhaps they are Grey Swans. With a new era for global agricultural markets, but in a period of relative calm, how should we be preparing for the risk of future disruption? This article looks first at the new era for global agriculture characterised by new price trends, shifting policy landscapes and trade patterns as well as the prospect of climate change. It highlights a more explicit risk of further food commodity price spikes, and considers the G20's response in the form of the Agricultural Markets Information System (AMIS). Finally, it builds on a symposium of some of the world's leading agricultural economists – the London Group – to identify the four main challenges for policymakers. It identifies priority actions which include reforming global agriculture policy to drive productivity growth; preparing for truly unpredictable shocks; challenging private grain traders to do more for stability; and accelerating the availability of data to enable both R&D and futures markets to mitigate risks. Taken together, these are the steps that will prepare our agricultural systems to meet the challenges of Grey and Black Swans.
Text in English
746-692X (Online)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12108
Food Prices
Agricultural prices
Policies
Markets
Risk
Grey Swans – Agricultural price spikes are not a thing of the past - USA : Wiley, 2015.
Peer review
Food price spikes can lead to significant increases in hunger and disruption but unlike ‘Black Swans’ they are not unforeseen or extremely unlikely events. Perhaps they are Grey Swans. With a new era for global agricultural markets, but in a period of relative calm, how should we be preparing for the risk of future disruption? This article looks first at the new era for global agriculture characterised by new price trends, shifting policy landscapes and trade patterns as well as the prospect of climate change. It highlights a more explicit risk of further food commodity price spikes, and considers the G20's response in the form of the Agricultural Markets Information System (AMIS). Finally, it builds on a symposium of some of the world's leading agricultural economists – the London Group – to identify the four main challenges for policymakers. It identifies priority actions which include reforming global agriculture policy to drive productivity growth; preparing for truly unpredictable shocks; challenging private grain traders to do more for stability; and accelerating the availability of data to enable both R&D and futures markets to mitigate risks. Taken together, these are the steps that will prepare our agricultural systems to meet the challenges of Grey and Black Swans.
Text in English
746-692X (Online)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12108
Food Prices
Agricultural prices
Policies
Markets
Risk